Carnelian Bay, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS65 KREV 142058
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1258 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Rain and snow showers are expected from late this afternoon into
  Friday with light snowfall down to valley floors possible.

* Confidence is increasing for a snow band Friday afternoon and
  evening in the vicinity of South Lake, Minden, and Reno with
  impacts to the afternoon/evening commute possible.

* Another storm is lining up for late Sunday into Monday with drier
  conditions for the remainder of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rain/snow showers are already visible on the radar reflectivity this
morning across northern California and will continue to fill in
across the Sierra (2-3pm) and far western Nevada (4-6pm) through
the afternoon and evening.

Main message for today: Plan on Sierra snow for the all AM/PM
commutes from today through early Saturday. For western Nevada,
check the roads before you go! Chances for snow `down here` are
going up, especially for Friday.

While the first round of showers pushes in this afternoon and
evening, the potential will mostly be limited to NE CA and the
Sierra with only a handful of showers popping up into far western
NV. Any snow accumulations will be lighter today.

As the cold core of the low passes western NV, the stronger bands of
showers will push through Friday bringing more widespread chances
for showers to the region. The first band blossoms across the I80
corridor over the Basin and Range before sunrise on Friday, which
may produce AM commute issues. This lines up well with the ECMWF EFI
CAPE/snow parameters that show signals for anomalous instability and
snow potential across western Nevada for the Friday timeframe. The
high resolution simulations then produce a secondary/frontal band
that expands across far western Nevada (Carson City, Minden, Reno)
westward toward South Lake Tahoe. The snow amounts with this band
are lower confidence since there is decent spread with the blended
guidance. For example, there is a boom amount of 10+ inches for
South Lake and a bust amount of around 2 inches, while the mean sits
around 6-8 inches. For the higher elevations in the Sierra, this
should be a decent snow pickup with snow totals through Saturday
morning around 9-12" with a 55-75% chance of exceeding a foot.
Otherwise, Tahoe communities at lake level should see 1-4" of snow.


Behind the cold front it will be pretty cold for Friday and Saturday
with high temperatures struggling to meet 40F and 50F for Sierra
communities and western Nevada, respectively. A bit of a break is in
store Saturday before another storm arrives on Sunday. After we get
past that storm, the ensemble clusters highlight a ridge for much of
next week.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

After a brief lull in showers this morning, the next round of
snow/rain returns this afternoon and evening and persists through
Saturday morning with potential for accumulating snow.

Plan on lowered CIGS/VIS as well as mountain obscuration today and
into early Saturday. KTRK/KTVL will have the highest potential for
snow showers this afternoon and evening into early Saturday morning.
KRNO/KCXP/KMEV may see some spotty, intermittent showers starting
late this evening and persisting through much of Friday. While KMMH,
will be delayed in any snow until early Friday morning. Snow
accumulations will be limited for western NV valley floors until
overnight into Friday as temperatures drop.

Chances of 0.5" or more through Saturday Morning:
KRNO 20%
KCXP 50%
KMEV 50%

Chances of Snow 6" or more through Saturday Morning:
KTVL 60%
KTRK 45%
KMMH 35%

Lingering snow showers may keep CIGS/VIS lower on Saturday morning
with clearing skies later in the afternoon. Another storm may impact
the region after a brief lull Saturday into early Sunday.

-Edan

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM PST Friday
     NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Friday
     NVZ001-003-004.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
     Friday CAZ071.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM PST Friday
     CAZ072-073.

&&

$$